Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Will PK Turn Kingmaker or Spoiler?

 

Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: Will PK Turn Kingmaker or Spoiler?

By S.N. Verma

As Bihar braces for a fierce electoral battle, the outcome seems predictable—yet uncertain. Predictable because the NDA appears ahead; uncertain because of one man—Prashant Kishor (PK)—whose entry has changed the dynamics.

Straight Fight? NDA Would Walk It

If this election were purely between the NDA and the INDI alliance, the NDA would secure a comfortable majority, and the INDI bloc would barely scrape 60–80 seats.

Why so? Let’s rewind to 2020.

2020: INDI’s Gains Were NDA’s Losses

The INDI alliance’s strong showing last time wasn’t because of its own might—it was fueled by NDA’s internal rifts:

BJP and JD(U) fought for dominance.

Chirag Paswan ran a proxy war against Nitish Kumar, hurting JD(U).

Upendra Kushwaha contested separately.

Result? JD(U)’s seat count crashed, and INDI gained. NDA crossed the majority line only narrowly.

2025: NDA Looks Stronger, Smarter

This time, NDA is united. BJP, JD(U), Chirag Paswan, and Upendra Kushwaha are together. Add to this a string of populist schemes that voters are cheering for:

125 units free electricity per household.

₹10,000 startup grant for women, expandable to ₹2 lakh.

Pension hike for elderly, widows, disabled from ₹400 to ₹1,100.

Journalists’ pensions doubled; dependents’ pensions tripled.

Youth internship stipends: ₹4,000–₹6,000 monthly.

Honorarium hikes for home guards and local officials.

35% reservation for women in government jobs.

The free electricity promise is making big waves.

Meanwhile, RJD remains stuck in its M+Y (Muslim + Yadav) base. Congress continues to piggyback on RJD, despite Rahul Gandhi’s 16-day yatra. Smaller allies? Unreliable.

In a head-to-head fight, NDA could bag 150+ seats easily.

Enter PK: The Wild Card

Prashant Kishor—the strategist-turned-politician—is not just contesting; he’s shaping the discourse. His straight talk and fresh image make him a magnet for voters tired of both alliances.

NDA’s baggage? 20 years of incumbency.

INDI’s baggage? The ghost of Jungle Raj.

PK offers a third option, and that’s shaking things up.

Who Loses More—NDA or INDI?

Yadavs remain loyal to Lalu.

Muslims may lean towards PK, but when the chips are down, they’ll likely vote INDI to block BJP.

PK’s biggest impact? Among urban and semi-urban voters who’d otherwise pick NDA.

If PK stops at 10 seats, NDA cruises. If he crosses 20, NDA’s majority tightens.

But in the end, if PK’s voters fear a Lalu comeback, they might switch to NDA at the last minute.

Bottom Line

NDA is ahead. The real question: Big win or narrow escape? The answer depends on Prashant Kishor—the spoiler or the kingmaker?