Peace talks have failed in islamabad, but should it surprise us?

 Peace talks between United States and Iran have failed—but should that really surprise us?

 Probably not.

In many ways, this outcome was almost inevitable. On the ground, Iran has suffered significant setbacks. Much of its top-tier and second-line leadership has reportedly been neutralized, and a substantial portion of its civilian and economic infrastructure has been damaged—arguably setting it back by years, if not decades. From a purely military standpoint as well, Iran appears to have taken heavy losses.

Yet, despite these setbacks, Iran has neither capitulated nor withdrawn. It continues to engage militarily, inflicting costs on the United States, Israel, and their Middle Eastern allies. The mere fact that it remains operational and capable of resistance seems to have reinforced a perception within Iran that it has not been defeated—and perhaps even that it holds leverage.

This perception is critical. It shapes Iran’s negotiating posture. Entering talks from a standpoint of perceived resilience, Iran appears to be demanding sweeping concessions: influence over the Strait of Hormuz, security assurances for allies like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi movement, complete lifting of sanctions, acceptance of its nuclear ambitions, and even war reparations.

From the perspective of the United States, while there may be a desire to de-escalate and eventually exit the conflict, there are clear red lines. It is highly unlikely that Washington would agree to terms such as permitting Iran’s nuclear advancement, conceding strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, or formalizing protections for groups it designates as hostile actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Huti etc.

Given these fundamentally incompatible positions, there was always limited reason to believe that an informal ceasefire or exploratory talks would translate into a durable peace agreement.

The collapse of these talks, therefore, is less a surprise and more a reflection of entrenched strategic realities. Unfortunately, the consequence is clear: the conflict is likely to persist—prolonging human suffering and exerting continued strain on the global economy.